I have followed your work and like the facts based approach. Just a quick word on Natural Gas. At least for this winter, it’s all about weather. If El Niño results in warm winter (>50% chance if El Niño is super El Niño) then expect to see a lower bottom nearer $1 to $1.5. US and EU storage is robust to overflowing and Natgas bulls need winter to show up to move prices… production is at record levels and summer has disappointed in E Coast here despite the headlines.
I won't pretend to understand the macro natty gas environment or the effect of El Nino, it's always cold in Scotland so I don't see it feel it so I just need to stick to my lane, price.
Hi Sam
I have followed your work and like the facts based approach. Just a quick word on Natural Gas. At least for this winter, it’s all about weather. If El Niño results in warm winter (>50% chance if El Niño is super El Niño) then expect to see a lower bottom nearer $1 to $1.5. US and EU storage is robust to overflowing and Natgas bulls need winter to show up to move prices… production is at record levels and summer has disappointed in E Coast here despite the headlines.
Hi Rudran,
I won't pretend to understand the macro natty gas environment or the effect of El Nino, it's always cold in Scotland so I don't see it feel it so I just need to stick to my lane, price.
Thanks for the comment and best wishes.