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Great writeup.

So incrementally bullish...

Personally, I think we can pivot to being more constructive once 1. a healthy amount of SPX companies have reported (not as much focused on the earnings themselves in terms of beats but the management commentary and guidance); 2. we hear the Fed's thoughts on February 1st (real guidance and not just the hawkish media tour the FOMC members love these days), and 3. SPX climbs above the 200DMA with RSI at its back.

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Hi Blake, I get the earnings conundrum, and I'm with you.

My work is definitely more focussed on individual stocks / ETF's just now, than it is about the S&P500 but you're right, a break out would be nice. As the letter says, I'm hoping for a risk on move across multiple charts to have real conviction.

Fed policy doesn't really factor into my thinking otherwise I'd never sleep, but of course, no new positions in the days leading up to the circus act is my preferred approach.

Thanks for the comment.

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